August 19, 2026
2026 Outlook Mid-Year Update: The Second Movement
Six months into 2026, the four themes from our January Outlook remain intact—but each is progressing at its own pace. “The Second Movement,” our first mid-year update, examines how each theme has evolved, where our thesis has held, where new forces have emerged , and what we’re watching for the rest of the year.
We believe the lower middle market remains one of private equity’s most durable and least crowded sources of outperformance. In our latest research report, we examine the data behind our thesis and explain why we think disciplined manager selection creates a distinct edge.
In this mid-year follow-up to our 2026 Outlook, we revisit the four themes shaping this year's markets—AI's debt-financed buildout, accelerating private market access, biotech's continued momentum, and a slowly healing real estate market—and take stock of what's playing out as anticipated and what isn’t.
Three years after our last Investment Policy review, the regime has shifted: higher rates, sticky inflation, and a positive stock-bond correlation. In this conversation, GEM’s CIO Matt Bank revisits not just capital market assumptions but the framework itself, from methodology to implementation and risk management.
Let’s start a conversation about how we can help.
