January 27, 2026
2026 Outlook: The Market’s Reprise
As markets move deeper into a new cycle defined by capital intensity, dispersion, and structural change, investors face a familiar challenge: understanding how to separate signal from noise as conditions evolve. GEM’s 2026 Outlook examines the forces reshaping today’s investment landscape and explores how those themes are actively influencing our team’s allocation tactics and positioning for the year ahead.
We believe the lower middle market remains one of private equity’s most durable and least crowded sources of outperformance. In our latest research report, we examine the data behind our thesis and explain why we think disciplined manager selection creates a distinct edge.
In this mid-year follow-up to our 2026 Outlook, we revisit the four themes shaping this year's markets—AI's debt-financed buildout, accelerating private market access, biotech's continued momentum, and a slowly healing real estate market—and take stock of what's playing out as anticipated and what isn’t.
Three years after our last Investment Policy review, the regime has shifted: higher rates, sticky inflation, and a positive stock-bond correlation. In this conversation, GEM’s CIO Matt Bank revisits not just capital market assumptions but the framework itself, from methodology to implementation and risk management.
Let’s start a conversation about how we can help.
