February 03, 2023
Looking Beyond ‘23
Our framework identifies three primary portfolio implications for navigating a new market environment:
1. Balanced Asset Allocation: Balanced asset allocation will be critical. The era of simple stock/ bond diversification is likely over.
2. Higher Real Assets Correlation: Commodity demand, US dollar weakness, and pressure on long-duration sectors will shift investor focus toward emerging markets and other market segments with higher real asset correlation.
3. Strong Governance & Risk Management: More inflation and geopolitical volatility will put a premium on a dynamic approach to risk management and strong governance norms.
We believe the lower middle market remains one of private equity’s most durable and least crowded sources of outperformance. In our latest research report, we examine the data behind our thesis and explain why we think disciplined manager selection creates a distinct edge.
In this mid-year follow-up to our 2026 Outlook, we revisit the four themes shaping this year's markets—AI's debt-financed buildout, accelerating private market access, biotech's continued momentum, and a slowly healing real estate market—and take stock of what's playing out as anticipated and what isn’t.
Three years after our last Investment Policy review, the regime has shifted: higher rates, sticky inflation, and a positive stock-bond correlation. In this conversation, GEM’s CIO Matt Bank revisits not just capital market assumptions but the framework itself, from methodology to implementation and risk management.
Let’s start a conversation about how we can help.
