January 06, 2025
GEM 2025 Outlook: Shifting Winds
The central tension in GEM’s 2025 Outlook is a fairly typical one: The current economic backdrop of solid growth and coordinated global monetary easing is supportive of risk assets, but those favorable conditions are well known and largely reflected in current market pricing. With that in mind, how should investors prepare for new unknowns: the impact of President-elect Trump’s policy mix on markets, the ability of global central banks to preserve a soft landing, the runway for continued outperformance in the US stock market, and more?
Read the Outlook for our team’s assessment of these questions and learn how we are strategically positioning client portfolios to navigate the volatility.
We believe the lower middle market remains one of private equity’s most durable and least crowded sources of outperformance. In our latest research report, we examine the data behind our thesis and explain why we think disciplined manager selection creates a distinct edge.
In this mid-year follow-up to our 2026 Outlook, we revisit the four themes shaping this year's markets—AI's debt-financed buildout, accelerating private market access, biotech's continued momentum, and a slowly healing real estate market—and take stock of what's playing out as anticipated and what isn’t.
Three years after our last Investment Policy review, the regime has shifted: higher rates, sticky inflation, and a positive stock-bond correlation. In this conversation, GEM’s CIO Matt Bank revisits not just capital market assumptions but the framework itself, from methodology to implementation and risk management.
Let’s start a conversation about how we can help.
