January 12, 2023
Key Takeaways
1. Venture capital is an important driver of returns for leading endowments. Accessing venture capital managers that are likely to outperform takes time, networks, and expertise which create significant barriers to entry for individuals and small investors.
2. Investing on behalf of mission-driven organizations has resonated with the venture capital community. The top managers often have a stable group of existing investors, and are only willing to add new investors if they support values-aligned missions. At GEM, our clients are a key differentiating aspect in this regard and something we are proud the investment community recognizes.
3. Selection is critical. Top quartile venture capital firms have added at least 14% above the S&P 500®, but the median fund has beaten the S&P by merely 2%.
We believe the lower middle market remains one of private equity’s most durable and least crowded sources of outperformance. In our latest research report, we examine the data behind our thesis and explain why we think disciplined manager selection creates a distinct edge.
In this mid-year follow-up to our 2026 Outlook, we revisit the four themes shaping this year's markets—AI's debt-financed buildout, accelerating private market access, biotech's continued momentum, and a slowly healing real estate market—and take stock of what's playing out as anticipated and what isn’t.
Let’s start a conversation about how we can help.